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GREY SWANS

Deutsche Bank and more debt

January 1, 2017
Joseph Rodenberg
A World View, Intelligence Briefings

We estimate the amount of debt in the financial world to exceed the amount of global debt of US$ 152 trillion (company, consumer and government debt) by far. In business one makes strategic and business plans as result of one’s scenario plans, strategic war-mapping efforts and Grey Swan analyses with the aim of getting to the future first. However, the levels of volatility and uncertainty in 2016-2018 are extremely high, and force us to try and create maximum agility in our companies. Europe will face two large Grey Swans: the first is financial, and the second political; they might, in addition, reinforce one another.

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Do we believe the truth when we hear it?

August 1, 2016
Joseph Rodenberg
A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Do we really believe the truth when we hear it, even if it is not what we want to hear? That is strategic intelligence at its core: critical thinking, perspectives over and above facts, challenging assumptions, and determining the course of future action. On one occasion, I was presenting to one of the leading business groups in the Netherlands, and at the end, the CEO of a top-25 listed company asked us what kind of differentiating tools we use to determine the possible courses of future actions.

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Most managers ignore small changes

May 1, 2016
Joseph Rodenberg
A World View, Intelligence Briefings

In the previous Intelligence Briefing, we discussed “Key Predictive Indicators” explaining the upcoming slowdown of the Chinese economy that might shock Western economies in 2018-2020. Sometimes banks also try to do this.Let’s take the example of Saxo Bank, which listed “Ten Outrageous Predictions for 2016”, which we could consider as potential Grey Swans.

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The leverage ratio of banks is far too low

January 1, 2015
Joseph Rodenberg
A World View, Intelligence Briefings

We have reported on the continuous threats to banks, and have identified that these are not Black, but Grey Swans. Black swans are large-scale unpredictable and irregular events of massive consequence for which we hardly can prepare ourselves. Grey Swans, on the other hand, are events which have a very high impact, but one for which organizations are able to prepare themselves. Banking is such a huge Grey Swan. Why is this?

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There are more postdictors than predictors

September 15, 2014
Joseph Rodenberg
A World View, Intelligence Briefings

As a result of hindsight, people who did not see an event coming, (think for example of Black or Grey Swans), will manage to convince themselves that they predicted it, before proceeding to convince others. According to Taleb, after every event there will be many more postdictors than true predictors. Think about this statement: “Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast or recommendation. Just ask them what they have or don’t have in their portfolio”.

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Black Swans and Grey Swans

May 15, 2014
Joseph Rodenberg
A World View, Intelligence Briefings

“The more threatening externalities become for a company, the more there is a need to have strategic intelligence in place. Every company faces a continuous flow of threatening externalities”This statement is clear to everybody. But to foresee those threatening externalities, companies need to be able to monitor them in a timely fashion. A couple of years ago, I gave presentations about the “Management of Insights” and the “Management of Foresight” at the Dutch National Marketing Insights Event.

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