Since the 1980s-1990s we have seen not that many new tools & techniques within the area of strategy and competitive intelligence. Research of SCIP during the last couple of decades confirms this. We still speak of Porter’s Five Forces, Where-to-Play & How-to-Win, Strategic Sweet Spot Analysis, Strategy under Uncertainty, Porter’s Four Corners Analysis, Extrapolation, Key Success Factor Analysis, Scenario Planning & Analysis and SWOTI. Most managers, professionals and leaders are familiar with these tools and techniques.In this article I argue for a totally new way of looking at strategic planning & competitive intelligence. And how I was able to implement this at our company.
The upcoming week European citizens have the opportunity to elect the next ‘bunch of nonos’ in the European Parliament. Around 750 heavely overpaid politicians. Ask yourself what the Europeans got from them in exchange. Are you able to list 10 examples of their achievements? From our strategic intelligence perspectives we foresee crucial economic issues Europe is facing. We call them ‘The Gray Rhinos’. Gray Rhinos are threats already at the horizon, however, we don’t want to see them.
We all know that the “holy grail” of forecasting is 50% or in fact “cross or coin”. No governmental institute or agency neither any multinational company is able to produce reliable forecasts. They have tried to do this for decades without being able to deliver trustworthy results. However, with the “Predictive Foresights” service it is possible to leverage the ‘holy grail’ of forecasting towards direction of future development of any kind with 75-85% accuracy. Furthermore the need for Big Data Storage & Analysis has become obsolete as the “Predictive Foresights” service only needs a tiny amount of data to effectively produce results in comparison.
The IT-world would like us to believe that Big Data is a success, with the emergence of all kind of data-management functions, data scientists, chief data officers and others. You might ask yourself how effective all of this is in the absence of a coherent strategy for organizing, governing, analyzing and deploying an organization’s information needs. The quote by the renowned author of the famous book “The Black Swan” is also clear in this regard. In the 2017 May/June issue of Harvard Business Review, Thomas Davenport draws a distinction between data defense and offense, and other crucial dimensions.
It is fascinating to read these quotes by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the bestselling “The Black Swan” and “Antifragile”. Taleb is speaking about the IYI, the Intellectual Yet Idiot, a product of modernity which has been accelerating since the mid-20th century, to reach its local maximum today, along with the broad category of people without skin in the game who have been invading many walks of life.
It was interesting to read first about Unilever’s Consumer and Market Insights Group (CMI), and then Christensen’s comments that most companies spend too much time and money compiling data-rich models that make them masters of description but failures at prediction. Let us explain. Organizations now know more about their customers than ever before. Big-data analytics can provide an enormous variety and volume of customer information at unprecedented speed. Almost all companies have established structured, disciplined innovation processes and have brought in highly-skilled talent to run them. Structure is created to show correlations.
In our book “Strategic Intelligence in Future Perspectives 2.0” we discussed a wide variety of some twenty-five companies that lost momentum because they failed to react in a timely fashion to discontinuous changes in their external business development. We described why this happens to so many companies and what can be done to overcome this. Here we explain how to do this.
“Why don’t companies last forever? Why do so many companies face serious problems after years of success? Why does management not react if the success rate of organizations comes to an end?”This is because your company’s internal business intelligence dashboards, your big-data analytics, and the managers with titles like market insights, customer insights, marketing intelligence and market intelligence do not deliver the right intelligence!
How can these systems-based organizations survive, when inspiration, passion, enthusiasm, motivation have faded away a long time ago? These organizations now jump on ‘big data’, however, although big data can gradually improve our abilities as we work with it, it does not grant instant omniscience, and is not an automatic cornucopia or substitute for insight. We have a much more crucial phenomenon available to us these days, ‘open data’.