Yes, we have new insights about the life expectancy of companies. It is based on the S&P Dow Jones Indices of the 500 leading companies in the USA. Here are the key figures about life expectancy of companies (source Innosight/FD, December 2018)
The largest 187 technology companies in the world have a total market value of US$ 7.000 billion, of which 70% is owned by the ‘Big Seven’. Research shows that this dominance will lead to an escalation of our labour laws, competition, and consumer protection. Only 2% of the companies active in the platform economy come from Europe. The ‘rules of the game’ in this platform economy are developed and determined outside the monitoring mechanisms of the EU.
Since the mid-1980s we are active in the implementation processes of strategic intelligence as well as with our international master class at numerous companies across the world. Combined with our publications of six books on strategic intelligence since the year 2000 and the execution of over 75 International Master Classes, we are proud to be recognized as one of the premier strategy & strategic intelligence firms in Europe. The creation of new positions nearby the boardroom such as ‘Vice President of Future Disasters’, ‘Head of AARs’, SEALS Teams and ‘Corporate Radar Rooms’ are for us the so-called “icings on the cake”.
Since 1976 the painting of the Dodo is hanging in the office of the Head of Shell’s Global Business Environment, currently led by Jeremy Bentham. After the Scenario Plans ‘Oceans’ and ‘Mountains’, in Spring 2018 the latest scenario plan ‘Sky’ was launched. ‘Sky’ assumes that the world in 2070 still needs 50-60 million oil barrels/day and describes what must be done to meet the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement. Everybody who makes analyses knows that we have to re-organize the complete world economy within the next 50 years. Jeremy Bentham: “It’s my accountability that Shell doesn’t become a Dodo”.
We all know that the “holy grail” of forecasting is 50% or in fact “cross or coin”. No governmental institute or agency neither any multinational company is able to produce reliable forecasts. They have tried to do this for decades without being able to deliver trustworthy results. However, with the “Predictive Foresights” service it is possible to leverage the ‘holy grail’ of forecasting towards direction of future development of any kind with 75-85% accuracy. Furthermore the need for Big Data Storage & Analysis has become obsolete as the “Predictive Foresights” service only needs a tiny amount of data to effectively produce results in comparison.
The following four questions are the guiding principles in Peter Hinssen’s book “The Day after Tomorrow”. During the past five decades we have seen many similar publications. In essence, not much has changed within our companies, which are still guided by inward-looking control-mechanisms. This remains a key problem!
the essence of strategy has not changed and will not change during the coming decade! It represents the common understanding regarding the ever-changing competitive environment, and what the company’s response is to that. It represents your promise to deliver value to your customers, both now and in the future, in a way that no other company can do, in a world of VUCA.
Professor Jaap Koelewijn’s quote is telling, pointing out that a number of multinationals may be reaching the end of their company life-cycle. The financial press reports that an increasing number of hedge funds put heavy pressure on those boards of management to divest and/or to split up their companies to meet shareholder value. Management’s answer throughout 2017 has typically been to make ‘unrealistic’ promises that they will somehow succeed in meeting shareholder expectations. In addition, they took the easy and relatively straightforward way forward of cost-cutting and increasing consumer prices.
Traditional companies spend much of their time monitoring start-ups. Likewise, the financial world does this by monitoring the fintech sector. Should we fear those start-ups or should we fear others? In his new book, “The Day after Tomorrow”, Peter Hinssen tells us that we should fear potential new competitors who will take over interactions with customers. The following eight companies: Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Baidu, Tencent and Alibaba, are the new ‘hub firms’ that will shape our collective future.
Every manager in every company business function is part of a high-impact VUCA world: Volatility – Uncertainty – Complexity – Ambiguity. In this VUCA world, Nassim Nicholas Taleb published his famous book “The Black Swan” in 2007. Based on Taleb’s Black Swans, we have been using the phenomenon of Grey Swans with our unique Grey Swan Analysis. In the spring of 2016, Michele Wucker came out with her book “The Gray Rhino”, on the basis of which we added ‘Gray Rhino Analysis’ to our strategic intelligence practices.