The economies of the USA, Europe and China are more integrated than ever before. Frictions in geopolitics will lead to more potential conflicts. Think of the US sanctions of Nordstream 2 to Russia, US-sanctions on Iran, public opinion in Europe towards China leading to a boycot in China of Western brands like H&M, Adidas and Nike, the doubts on Huawei and much more.
Over 40 percent of companies that face the Corona-crisis has weakened their competitive position. Just 30 percent have increased their competitive edge by business-model innovation. Unfortunately, management doesn’t have an extensive toolbox available to strengthen the company’s competitive position. The key problem is that the vast majority of companies don’t have a Strategic Competitive Intelligence Capability in place to gain maximum success from business-model innovation.
Many management books have been published, however only a few have had great influence on management today. Think of the books of Michael Porter on Competitive Strategies in the 1980s, “Competing for the Future” of Hamel and Phrahalad 1n 1996, “Only the Paranoid Survive” of Andrew Grove in 1996, “Good to Great” of Jim Collins in 2010 and Nassim Taleb’s “Black Swan” in 2007 and “Antifragile” in 2012. “Humanocracy” is the new book in 2020 of Gary Hamel on replacing bureaucracy, which might be seen as another “gamechanger”. Humanocracy leads to exceptional competitive power with unique competitive advantages, difficult to copy for your rivals.
The Purpose of Intelligence is to reduce uncertainty about the aspirations, intentions, capabilities, and actions of rivals, partners, allies, stakeholders and beyond. Being better informed does not guarantee better decisions. The Mission of Intelligence is to evaluate, integrate, and interpret information to provide the early warnings, to reduce uncertainty, and to identify timely opportunities. You never get this accomplished with just information. Having the picture is not the same as knowing the significance of what you can see.
Covid-19 has made clear how dependent Europe is on China.The tensions are growing between Europe and China on digital security and economic power. Security experts across Europe have great worries of the connection of Chinese multinationals with the State. The Dutch Intelligence Agency AIVD already reported in 2019 on “China’s Offensive Cyberprogram – The perfect business model for nations”, as the biggest threat of economic espionage. Europe already is very dependent on Chinese technology.
We all know the Intel Company which became famous because of “Intel inside”. Another key event we remember of Intel was the publication in 1996 of the bestseller “Only the Paranoid survive” of former legendary CEO and founder Andrew Grove. For decades Intel has dictated and dominated the world of semiconductors, microprocessors and chips. Andrew Grove stated in the late 1990s : “Strategic Intelligence is a pre-condition for existence”. In the 1990s/2000s Intel has been leading in strategic intelligence. State-of-Art. However, what happened to Intel?
The Trump administration has decided that the listings of China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom must stop in January 2021. It’s expected that President Joe Biden will not change this action. Reason is that these Chinese multinationals are connected and controlled by the Chinese Army. The market value of these three telecom companies dropped in December 2020 with US$ 50 billion. A similar decision has been taken on Huawei last Summer, however also in the UK, Sweden and Australia.
It’s not about predicting the future, but to make it possible to imagine multiple futures in creative ways that heighten our ability to sense, to shape and to adapt to what happens in the years ahead of us. Farsightedness or Strategic Foresight is not what to think about the future, however, to figure out how to think about it.
In both Intelligence Briefings in May 2020 we informed you about China’s Artificial Super Intelligence describing the ‘Dangers to Humanity’. From the central production place of the world, China wants to rule the rest of the world by connecting an Artificial Brain to robotics via the new global 5G and future 6G network.
When in December 2019 Covid-19 started in Wuhan, the rest of the world reacted with “it’s far away like SARS in 2002-2003”. So why should we bother? Why do we have to worry? The new target of China is the creation and building of global Human Targeting Capabilities. This is our second Early Warning after our first one on May 6 2020 that China will change the world not limited to facial recognition but also towards gesture recognition, people counting software, crowd monitoring, facial attributes, face counting, emotion recognition, skeleton detection, body detection, voice detection, vital organ detection, and human bio-field detection software.