FEBRUARY 2021 / NO. 2

How are you receiving your daily Intelligence Updates?

“Everybody routinely collects, analyzes and applies information to increase the likelihood of success”
“However, Intelligence differs in scope, expectations and impact. Greatest difference between Information and Intelligence is IMPACT”. Let’s explain and give some perspectives.
The Purpose of Intelligence is to reduce uncertainty about the aspirations, intentions, capabilities, and actions of rivals, partners, allies, stakeholders and beyond. Being better informed does not guarantee better decisions. The Mission of Intelligence is to evaluate, integrate, and interpret information to provide the early warnings, to reduce uncertainty, and to identify timely opportunities. You never get this accomplished with just information. Having the picture is not the same as knowing the significance of what you can see.

Different Analyses

What is and what is not known about the issue, the quantity and quality of the available information, what assumptions have been used to bridge the intelligence-gaps, what alternatives have been considered, and how much confidence analysts have in the evidence and their judgments. Reducing uncertainty involves many types of analysis: Understanding of what is known (1), understanding of what remains unknown (2), understanding what is happening (3), understanding where events seem to be headed (4), understanding what is driving them (5), and understanding what might change the course of the developments (6). In the USA, President Joe Biden gets two crucial Strategic Intelligence reports every day again, 365 days in a row:
  1. PDB, is the Presidents Daily Briefing. Can you imagine the President gets a daily newsletter or daily briefings based on data or information? NO! What the President of the USA gets are daily intelligence briefings of ‘actionable intelligence with the future courses of action’ for key decision-making. Analysts and only analysts create intelligence.
  2. NIEs, are the National Intelligence Estimates. Intelligence Estimates are about what is likely to happen. Making judgments about the likely course of future events and identify the implications. Intelligence estimates are missing in over 95% of our businesses.
Intelligence Estimates are not predictions that something could happen, which is not the same that it will happen. Intention is to manage the problems or to capitalize on opportunities. Estimative Analyses can be short-term or mid- to long-term. Example is the Strategic out-of-the-box Estimative Analysis, where we challenge conventional wisdom and consider scenarios that appear low in probability but high in consequence. It’s an open door, but an effective intelligence capability in an organization is the hallmark of collective insights and foresight that drives successful strategies and grap the opportunities earlier than your rivals are able to.
“Information is not a perspective on change and doesn’t lead to context and insights”

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