June 2019 / NO. 1
TAGS: FUTURE, PREDICTIVE, FORESIGHTS, THE GREAT DEPRESSION, COMMITTEE OF 500, PRESIDENT HOOVER, PRESIDENT ROOSEVELT, WESLEY CLAIR MITCHELL, EDWARD DEWEY, THE FOUNDATION FOR THE STUDY OF CYCLES, NATIONAL BUREAU FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH, MEDICAL, SALES, INSURANCE, CLAIMS, RETAIL, FURNITURE, GOLD, BROKER, LUMBER, SOYA
In-depth look into Predictive Foresights & Case examples
“The chains of habit are too weak to be felt until they are too strong to be broken.” – Samuel Johnson
“We can’t solve today’s problems with yesterday’s methods and be in business tomorrow.” – Joseph Rodenberg
The quotes above are so true. How many of us frequently fall into this trap. It’s always so much easier to repeat our methods of solving our current problems. Sometimes new methods and techniques are developed, which revolutionize the way we do business. Imagine you are able to predict the future? Think of science-fiction, like the “Precogs” foreknowledge on crime as portrayed in the movie Minority Report? Nothing is closer to the truth.
The advances in technology, the upcoming of A.I. learning, the understanding of our environment are all progressing logarithmic, including the way we do business today. Understanding how we are all connected in this world and how we are influenced accordingly is crucial. Using new methods and techniques will help you to stay ahead. In this Special Intelligence Briefing I like to take the opportunity to give you in-depth background on “Predictive Foresights” and show recent case examples. Did you know that the academic research on our “Predictive Foresights” services goes back more than 80 years?
So, what is it?
To make it as simple as possible, “Predictive Foresights” is based on rhythmically non-chance events or predictive cycles found anywhere. Cycles may be defined as any phenomena repeating after fairly regular time intervals. Edward Dewey of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles showed that every sector studied had cycles. So if every sector has cycles, than it’s possible for us to identify these cycles and predict what might happen in the future with a high degree of accuracy. We have the knowledge to identify these cycles, which will allow us to make accurate predictions in every sector of industry.
“… cycles are meaningful, all science that has been developed in the absence of cycle knowledge is inadequate and partial. Thus, if cyclic forces are real, any theory of economics, or sociology, or history, or medicine, or climatology that ignores non-chance rhythms is manifestly incomplete, as medicine was before the discovery of germs.” – Edward R. Dewey (1967)
Where did it come from?
So where does this knowledge come from? Before we go to the case examples, lets go back in time, to be precise the 1920’s.
The Great Depression and the Committee of 500
It was during the “Roaring Twenties”, that the devastating Wall Street Crash happened in October 1929, and is generally seen as a harbinger of the end of 1920s prosperity in North America and Europe. Herbert Hoover was the 31st president of The United States, whose term was notably marked by the stock market crash and the beginning of the Great Depression. During the depression of 1929, President Hoover setup a task force of 500 academics and government officials among others, to find out what had happened to the economy and how they could prevent it from happening again. This Committee of 500 was headed by Wesley Clair Mitchell who also assisted in the creation of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Today NBER is still the prime advisor of The United States government.
The Foundation for the Study of Cycles
Edward R. Dewey was head of The United States Census Bureau under the presidency of Herbert Hoover and was one of the Committee of 500. In 1940, Dewey was kicked out of office as President Hoover lost the election and President Roosevelt did not want to listen to former President Hoover’s Committee of 500 advise:
“it happened before and will happen again, just let things happen. If you try manipulating it, you are going to prolong it”
The committee called these returning events “business cycles”. President Roosevelt tried to kill the cycles without success, including many others following him in the years hereafter. If you look closely now at the financial world, you can clearly see that this manipulation is happening again. Making recovery from the next recession even harder than before.
When Dewey left government, he took the knowledge related to the “Business Cycles” with him. It was that same year, that Dewey setup the Foundation for the Study for Cycles, and improved the cycles algorithms in the years to come. His research is the basis for our “Predictive Foresights” services. [READ MORE ON THE HISTORY HERE]
Automation of the process
Thanks to the late David Perales, President of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, the whole process of identifying rhythmically non-chance events or predictive cycles was fully automated. What would have cost Dewey one month to find one cycle, now takes only a few seconds to find many.
Our “Predictive Foresights” services has a long academic history. It’s not that strange that companies and organizations have asked us for assistance in identifying specific cycles that their companies, sales, production, manufacturing, competitors etc., are influenced by. We have provided below a couple of recent cases that we have accomplished.
Sales (UK Company Medical Devices)
We got a request from one of their VP’s Sales with the question if it would be possible for us to help him improve their sales forecasting. They have been using the standard techniques of sales forecasting. Having been informed of our “Predictive Foresights” services he was more than interested to see if we could increase his accuracy of forecasting and help him to identify future unexpected changes.
We asked the VP Sales to give us a data-set of sales 2014-2018. Having identified the different cycles, we were able to provide him with a “Predictive Foresight” 12 months ahead. Even though he only has had access to our “Predictive Foresights” for a short period of time, his team identified inconsistencies in his “standard” sales forecasting, and was able to adjust them with this new method of forecasting.
Insurance (German Insurance Company)
After reading our first Special Intelligence Briefing called “METEOROLOGISTS CAN PREDICT RAPE AS WELL AS HURRICANES”, we where contacted by the marketing director of a German Insurance Company. She was wondering if, instead of predicting crime rates per day, we could predict the company’s daily home insurance claims. This would help the company in knowing if there would be periods in the future, with high claim rates, which they could than anticipate on.
We asked her to provide us with 5 years of daily claim numbers, which we would use to identify the particular cycles this company is adherent to. Having identified the different cycles, we were able to provide her with a “Predictive Foresight” 12 months ahead. She was astonished to see the accurate daily predictions. With the success of this initial trial, they are now going to look into ways of using “Predictive Foresights” in new product development.
Retail (Home Decoration & Furniture Retailer)
In our Strategic Intelligence Master Classes we make deep dives in case examples: IKEA and global sourcing. One of these Master Class attendees, director of home decoration retailer, contacted us and was wondering if we would be able to give precise forecasting on the price of lumber, so he could forecast on source materials the same way as IKEA does, however, with more accuracy.
We informed him that we could provide “Predictive Foresights” on any type of commodity, as long as we get access to the historical pricing data. As the historical price of lumber is easily available, we were able to identify the cycles involved and provide him with the “Predictive Foresight” on Lumber.
Gold Broker (UK Based Precious Metal Broker)
We have always been fascinated by gold. Who isn’t. The colouring, and the feeling are unique. So we decided it would be great to make our own “Predictive Foresights” on the prices of gold. Aim is to identify the best time for buying & selling! After having identified the cycles of gold prices we contacted a brokerage firm asking them if they are interested in accurate forcastings of gold prices.We provided them with just one month “Predictive Foresights”. At the end of the month they were amazed that “predictive Foresights” out-performed their current forecasting models.
Notice: Any commodity, e.g. soya, timber, crude oil and all other can be topics of our “Predictive Foresights” services.
You can challenge us if you like
Hopefully these case examples have shown you different ways on how to use “Predictive Foresights” to your advantage. Some case examples might be directly applicable to your needs, while others might need some small adaptions to make them work for you and your organization. The great thing about “Predictive Foresights” is, that it doesn’t need “Big Data”, “A.I.” or “time consuming investments” from your end. It only needs some simple data to successfully identify the relevant cycles your company, sales, production, manufacturing, competitors etc., are influenced by.
Why not solve your business challenges with today’s solutions and be successful in business tomorrow? Why not give it a try, and see how our “Predictive Foresights” service will positively help you. Have a chat with us and contact us at .
“All progress takes place outside the comfort zone.” – Michael John Bobak
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